FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 25, 1994
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* HAVING REGARD TO THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ECONOMY, THE
ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR 1994 HAVE BEEN REVIEWED AND UPDATED. OVERALL, THE FORECAST GDP GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS IS MAINTAINED AT 5.7%. THIS IMPLIES A SLIGHTLY FASTER ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR THAN IN THE FIRST HALF.
*
THE FORECAST RATE OF INCREASE IN THE CPI(A) IS REVISED DOWNWARDS FROM 8.5% TO 8%, CONSISTENT WITH THE OUTTURN IN THE FIRST TEN MONTHS OF THIS YEAR. THE FORECAST RATE OF INCREASE IN THE GDP DEFLATOR IS KEPT UNCHANGED AT 8%.
THE EXTERNAL SECTOR
IN
OVERALL EXPORT GROWTH IMPROVED SLIGHTLY, FROM 10% IN REAL TERMS THE FIRST HALF OF 1994 OVER A YEAR FARLIER TO ABOUT 11% IN THE THIRD QUARTER. RE-EXPORTS, WITH A GROWTH RATE OF ABOUT 14% IN REAL TERMS IN THE THIRD QUARTER, CONTINUED TO PROVIDE THE MAIN IMPETUS ΤΟ OVERALL EXPORT GROWTH. WHILE RE-EXPORTS TO CHINA, THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN MAINTAINED A STEADY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE, THOSE TO GERMANY AND THE UNITED KINGDOM MODERATED.
IN
N
DOMESTIC EXPORTS CEASED TO DECLINE IN REAL TERMS IN THE THIRD QUARTER. A POSITIVE GROWTH WAS RECORDED MOST RECENTLY. THE FALL DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO CHINA HAD BECOME SMALLER. DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES AND SINGAPORE PICKED UP FURTHER, BUT THOSE TO JAPAN SLACKENED. DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO GERMANY AND THE UNITED KINGDOM WERE STILL WEAK.
AS THE GROWTH OF RE-EXPORTS WAS PERSISTENTLY FASTER THAN THAT OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS, THE SHARE OF RE-EXPORTS IN THE VALUE OF TOTAL EXPORTS ROSE FURTHER TO 81% IN THE THIRD QUARTER OF 1994, FROM 79% IN THE SAME QUARTER IN 1993.
IMPORTS ROSE MARKEDLY. THIRD QUARTER WAS ABOUT 15%, FURTHER UP FROM THE 12% INCREASE IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR. WITHIN TOTAL IMPORTS, THE GROWTH RATE OF RETAINED IMPORTS SURGED TO ABOUT 19% IN REAL TERMS IN THE THIRD QUARTER, FROM 4% IN THE FIRST QUARTER AND 17% IN THE SECOND QUARTER. THERE WERE GREATER IMPORTS OF A VARIETY OF ITEMS FOR LOCAL USE. INCLUDING BOTH CAPITAL GOODS AND CONSUMER GOODS.
THE GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS IN THE
IN THE THIRD QUARTER, BOTH EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF SERVICES SHOULD HAVE CONTINUED TO GROW STEADILY IN OVERALL TERMS. THE SLOWER GROWTH IN TOURISM IN RECENT MONTHS SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPENSATED TO A GOOD EXTENT BY THE FURTHER GROWTH IN TRADE-RELATED SERVICES. EXPORTS OF VARIOUS OTHER PROFESSIONAL AND SUPPORT SERVICES SHOULD HAVE ALSO BEEN ROBUST. OVERALL, THERE SHOULD HAVE BEEN A SUSTAINED SURPLUS IN INVISIBLE TRADE.
A VISIBLE TRADE DEFICIT OF $57.9 BILLION WAS RECORDED IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 1994, EQUIVALENT TO 6.4% OF THE VALUE OF IMPORTS. THIS COMPARED WITH A DEFICIT OF $26.5 BILLION, EQUIVALENT TO 3. 3% OF THE VALUE OF IMPORTS, IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR. THE LARGER VISIBLE TRADE DEFICIT THIS YEAR WAS PROBABLY DUE TO THE OF STOCKS FOLLOWING THE REDUCTION TO A VERY LOW LEVEL IN THE LATTER PART OF LAST YEAR WHEN RETAINED IMPORTS SLOWED DOWN DRASTICALLY, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ALSO THE IMPORT REQUIREMENTS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRUCTION.
REPLENISHMENT
/DOMESTIC DEMAND