FRIDAY, AUGUST 26, 1994
THE CENSUS AND STATISTICS DEPARTMENT HAS RECENTLY UNDERTAKEN
REVISION OF THE GROSS DOMESTIC A NON-ROUTINE
PRODUCT ESTIMATES OVER THE PAST YEARS. THIS GIVES A BETTER COVERAGE A GREATER RECOGNITION OF THE OF INVISIBLE TRADE, CONTRIBUTION OF RE-EXPORTS TO THE GDP, AND AN IMPROVED MEANS TERMS. OF DERIVING THE GROWTH RATE OF VISIBLE TRADE IN REAL
IN REAL RESULTING FROM THIS REVISION, THE GDP GROWTH RATE
TO 6.0% IN IS RAISED BY 0.4 OF A PERCENTAGE POINT TERMS
OF 1992, 0.3 OF A PERCENTAGE POINT TO 5.9% IN 1993, AND 0.2 A PERCENTAGE POINT TO 5.7% IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 1994. ALSO INCORPORATING THE NON-ROUTINE REVISION, THE GDP GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS IN THE SECOND QUARTER WAS PROBABLY IN THE REGION OF 5.5
6%.
THE
AND
BEEN REVIEWED AND FOR 1994 HAVE ECONOMIC FORECASTS
OF THESE UPDATED ON THE BASIS
ECONOMIC
TECHNICAL DEVELOPMENTS. OVERALL, THE GDP GROWTH RATE IN REAL TERMS IN 1994 IS NOW FORECAST AT 5.7%. AGAINST THE EARLIER FORECAST OF 5.5%, THE DIFFERENCE IS ATTRIBUTABLE MAINLY TO THE EFFECT MATCHING OF THE NON-ROUTINE REVISION OF THE GDP ESTIMATES.
THE
THE LATEST FORECAST AGAINST THE ESTIMATED GDP GROWTH IN
THE ECONOMY IS FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR, IN OVERALL TERMS EXPECTED TO GROW AT A STEADY PACE THROUGHOUT 1994.
INDEX
8%
THE FORECAST RATES OF INCREASE IN THE CONSUMER PRICE (A) AND THE GDP DEFLATOR ARE KEPT UNCHANGED, AT 8.5% AND RESPECTIVELY.
THE EXTERNAL SECTOR
THE
THE YEAR-ON-YEAR
OF
EXPORTS SECOND
MODERATION IN EXPORT GROWTH OBSERVED IN THE EARLY PART
MONTHS, WITH THIS YEAR WAS FOLLOWED BY A PICK-UP IN THE MORE RECENT
REAL GROWTH RATE IN
TERMS OF TOTAL ACCELERATING FROM 8% IN THE FIRST QUARTER TO ABOUT 12% IN THE QUARTER. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 1994 AS A WHOLE, TOTAL EXPORTS GREW BY ABOUT 10% IN REAL TERMS.
CONTINUED
RE-EXPORTS
IMPETUS TO PROVIDE THE KEY
TO OVERALL OF EXPORT GROWTH, RISING BY ABOUT 14% IN REAL TERMS IN THE FIRST HALF 1994 OVER A YEAR EARLIER. WHILE THE STRONG GROWTH IN RE-EXPORTS TO THE RE-EXPORTS TO UNITED KINGDOM AND JAPAN WAS SUSTAINED, THE GROWTH IN
RAPID THAN IN THE CHINA, THE UNITED STATES AND GERMANY WAS LESS PRECEDING QUARTERS.
IN
HAVING DETERIORATED IN THE SECOND
QUARTER.
THE TREND OF DECLINE IN DOMESTIC EXPORTS,
IMPROVED SOMEWHAT THE FIRST QUARTER, DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO JAPAN, SINGAPORE AND THE UNITED STATES RETURNED TO POSITIVE GROWTH IN THE SECOND QUARTER, WHILE THE DECLINES IN EXPORTS TO CHINA AND THE UNITED KINGDOM WERE SMALLER. THE FIRST HALF OF 1994 AS A WHOLE, OVERALL DOMESTIC EXPORTS STILL FELL BY ABOUT 5% IN REAL TERMS OVER A YEAR EARLIER.
DOMESTIC HOWEVER, FOR
RE- STEMMING FROM THE DIVERGENT TRENDS IN DOMESTIC EXPORTS AND
EXPORTS ROSE EXPORTS, THE SHARE OF RE-EXPORTS IN THE VALUE OF TOTAL FURTHER, TO 81% IN THE FIRST HALF OF 1994, FROM 78% IN THE SAME PERIOD LAST YEAR.
/IMPORTS ROSE