THURSDAY, JANUARY 13, 1994
THE
THE LAST MAJOR STUDY WE DID WHICH SHOWED SOME OF THE HAZARDS INVOLVED IN
PREDICTING THE CONSEQUENCES OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN HONG KONG, THE LAST MAJOR STUDY WE DID SUGGESTED THAT CAR OWNERSHIP WOULD BE GROWING IN THE TERRITORY BY ABOUT 5% A YEAR. WELL, THE TRUTH IS THAT IT'S BEEN GROWING AT ABOUT 10% A YEAR. THE LAST FIGURES WE HAD SUGGESTED GROWTH OF NEARLY 12% IN 1992. WE'VE ALREADY EXCEEDED NUMBER OF PRIVATE VEHICLES THAT WE'D ORIGINALLY FORECAST FOR 1996 WE'VE EXCEEDED THEM BY A MARGIN OF OVER 40,000. WE PASSED THAT FIGURE IN NOVEMBER, 1993. ALL THOSE FACTS ARE A CONSEQUENCE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, THE SAME ECONOMIC GROWTH WHICH IS MAKING US CHANGE OUR TELEPHONE NUMBERING ONCE AGAIN, ONLY A FEW YEARS AFTER CHANGING IT FOR THE LAST TIME.
HONG KONG NEVERTHELESS STILL HAS LOW CAR OWNERSHIP IN RELATION TO THE SIZE OF OUR POPULATION BUT THE FIGURES ARE PRETTY DEVASTATING IN RELATION TO THE NUMBER OF ROADS WE HAVE. PER KILOMETRE OF ROADS, THE NUMBER OF CARS AND OF ALL VEHICLES RANKS AMONGST THE HIGHEST IN THE
WORLD. 160 FOR CARS, 270 PER KILOMETRE FOR ALL VEHICLES. THOSE ARE VERY LARGE FIGURES AND FIGURES WHICH ARE GROWING EXPONENTIALLY WITH ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES. WE CAN'T SHRUG OFF THAT PROBLEM AND I DON'T THINK THERE'S ANYBODY WHO SERIOUSLY THINKS THAT WE'LL BE ABLE TO ADDRESS IT SIMPLY BY BUILDING MORE ROADS. IF ONE TURNS THE WHOLE OF HONG KONG INTO A ROUNDABOUT I SUPPOSE THAT ONE MIGHT BE ABLE TO REDUCE THE FIGURES IN A ACCEPTABLE WAY BUT I DON'T THINK HONG KONG WOULD IN THOSE CIRCUMSTANCES BE AN ACCEPTABLE PLACE FOR PEOPLE TO LIVE IN. SO, WHAT DO WE DO IF WE WANT TO DEAL WITH THE PROBLEM? THOSE WHO HAVE CARS ARE ALWAYS OF COURSE PRETTY VIGOROUS IN THEIR BELIEF IN THE USE OF ECONOMIC OR OTHER MECHANISMS TO DETER OTHER PEOPLE FROM GETTING CARS AS WELL, BUT WE DO HAVE TO FACE UP TO THE ISSUE.
I
THE OPTIONS ARE CLEAR, WE CAN INTRODUCE PRICING MECHANISMS WHICH WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT FOR PEOPLE TO PURCHASE CARS OR MORE DIFFICULT FOR PEOPLE TO USE THEM WITHOUT PAYING FOR IT. SO WE CAN INTRODUCE HIGHER TAXES ON CAR OWNERSHIP OR, DARE I MENTION THE WORDS IN THIS CHAMBER, WE CAN GO BACK TO THE QUESTION OF ROAD PRICING WHICH
KNOW CAUSED SO MUCH INTEREST AND EXCITEMENT A FEW YEARS AGO. THERE'S AT LEAST ONE RETIRED SENIOR OFFICIAL OF THE HONG KONG ADMINISTRATION WHO I THINK WOULD BE ABLE TO GIVE US VERY CRISP ADVICE ON THAT ISSUE. IF WE DON'T USE THE PRICE MECHANISM WHICH WOULD BE HONG KONG'S CUSTOMARY WAY OF TACKLING THESE PROBLEMS, WHAT ELSE IS AVAILABLE? WELL, WE COULD INTRODUCE THE SORT OF PHYSICAL CONTROLS THAT EXIST IN OTHER PLACES. WE COULD BAN CARS FROM PARTS OF OUR URBAN AREA, OR WE COULD INTRODUCE A DIFFERENT SORT OF CONTROL SYSTEM, SUCH AS OTHER PEOPLE HAVE FLIRTED WITH, AND BAN CERTAIN SORTS OF VEHICLE FROM PARTS OF OUR URBAN AREA AT GIVEN TIMES. THAT'S PRETTY WELL THE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES SHORT OF DISINVENTING THE INTERNAL COMBUSTION ENGINE WHICH ISN'T ACTUALLY AN AVAILABLE OPTION. UNLESS WE FACE UP TO ONE OF THOSE OPTIONS WE REALLY WILL FIND THAT HONG KONG MOVES, PERHAPS MOVES IS THE WRONG WORD, BUT HONG KONG GOES INEVITABLY TOWARDS COMPLETE GRIDLOCK IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS.
THERE'S A CERTAIN AMOUNT MORE WE CAN DO TO BUILD NEW ROADS AND TUNNELS. WE'RE COMMITTED TO BUILDING GETTING ON FOR 100 KILOMETRES MORE ROAD BETWEEN NOW AND 1997 BUT THERE COMES A POINT WHERE EVEN THE MOST ACTIVE AND IMAGINATIVE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT, WHERE EVEN BUILDING MORE ROADS, WHERE EVEN BUILDING MORE INFRASTRUCTURE IN GENERAL WON'T DEAL WITH A SERIOUS SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEM AND AT THAT POINT POLITICIANS WILL HAVE TO PROVIDE THE SORT OF LEADERSHIP WHICH I'M AFRAID DOESN'T ALWAYS GUARANTEE POPULARITY,
/MR STEVEN