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WEDNESDAY, JULY 8, 1992
FS: YES, I'M DELIBERATELY AT THIS STAGE, WHICH IS AFTERALL QUITE EARLY IN THE YEAR, BEING VERY APPROXIMATE IN FIGURES. THEY WILL BE REFINED AS WE GO ALONG. BUT VERY ROUGHLY, IF YOU APPLY OUR BASIC BUDGET GUIDELINE THAT WE SHOULD KEEP PUBLIC EXPENDITURE GROWTH WITHIN GROWTH IN THE ECONOMY, THEN YOU'RE ROUGHLY SPEAKING LOOKING AT AN INCREASE OF 5 PER CENT IN REAL TERMS IN OUR PUBLIC EXPENDITURE, TRANSLATED INTO DOLLARS, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT VERY ROUND FIGURES, AROUND $5 BILLION. AND IF YOU SPLIT THAT UP BETWEEN CAPITAL AND RECURRENT, AGAIN VERY ROUGHLY, WE
ARE TALKING ABOUT $4 BILLION RECURRENT AND $1 BILLION CAPITAL. AS I'VE SAID, THOSE FIGURES WILL BE REFINED, BUT I THOUGHT IT HELPFUL ΤΟ GIVE AT LEAST A ROUGH FIGURE AGAINST WHICH WE ALSO DISCUSSED FOR EXAMPLE KNOWN EXPENDITURE ITEMS WHICH WE WILL HAVE TO FUND NEXT YEAR BECAUSE WE HAVE NEW FACILITIES COMING ON STREAM, YOU KNOW AS A NEW CLINIC BEING COMPLETED OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT. I'VE ALSO PROVIDED A SUMMARY, WHICH IS NOT A COMPREHENSIVE ONE, BUT WE DID OUR BEST ΤΟ SUMMARISE THE MAIN KNOWN ASPIRATIONS
SPENDING ASPIRATIONS I MEAN BY THAT ITEMS WHICH ARE NOT FUNDED, ON WHICH NO DECISION HAS BEEN TAKEN, BUT FOR INSTANCE, WHICH ARE IN A GREEN PAPER, SAY ON REHABILITATION, OR IN A WHITE PAPER, SAY ON SOCIAL WELFARE, IN AN EDUCATION COMMISSION REPORT. SO THESE ARE IN A SENSE BIDS FOR FUNDS AND THAT HELPS TO PROVIDE SOME SORT OF A CONTEXT WITHIN WHICH MEMBERS CAN TAKE A VIEW ON PRIORITIES. SO WE'VE DONE THAT.
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REPORTER: WITHIN THE $5 BILLION (INDISTINCT) HOW WOULD YOU SELECT THE GROWTH AREAS AND THE MAIN SPENDING (INDISTINCT)?
FS: WELL, I MEAN THAT'S PRECISELY WHAT IN A SENSE WE ARE CONSULTING ABOUT. THE LEVEL OF DETAIL WHICH WE'LL GET BACK I'M NOT AT ALL SURE, BUT I WOULDN'T EXPECT ENORMOUS DETAIL BECAUSE IT BECOMES EXTREMELY DIFFICULT. BUT AT LEAST AN ORDERING OF PRIORITIES, FOR INSTANCE, AND IT'S TRUE IN HONG KONG AS ANYWHERE ELSE, THAT THE NUMBER OF DESERVING IDEAS WILL ALWAYS EXCEED THE AMOUNT OF MONEY AVAILABLE. SO WE NEED AN INDICATION OF PRIORITIES, LET'S SAY FOR INSTANCE, DO PEOPLE PLACE REHABILITATION VERY HIGH, PERHAPS WITHIN REHABILITATION WHICH PARTICULAR AREA DO THEY WANT TO GIVE PRIORITY TO. THERE'S A WHOLE BACKGROUND THERE, THEY CAN READ THE GREEN PAPER, SO IT ISN'T JUST A DISCUSSION IN THE VACUUM. I ALSO BROUGHT OUT THAT WE MUSTN'T GET OVER-FIXATED ON THE AMOUNT OF MONEY AVAILABLE. THAT IS A LIMIT OF COURSE, BUT WE HAVE THE OPTION OF REDEPLOYMENT OF RESOURCES TO HIGHER PRIORITY AREAS. I THINK IT IS VERY IMPORTANT THAT WE LOOK VERY SERIOUSLY AT THOSE OPTIONS AND THAT'S WHY WE'VE GIVEN SECRETARIES MUCH MORE FREEDOM TO SHIFT RESOURCES BETWEEN DIFFERENT AREAS. WE'VE JUDGED THAT TO BE HELPFUL. I ALSO BROUGHT OUT THE FACT THAT THERE WERE SOME OTHER DEVELOPMENTS WHICH WILL HELP TO RELEASE SOME RESOURCES. ONE IS OF COURSE THE DECLINE IN VIETNAMESE BOAT PEOPLE POPULATION AS THE NUMBER LEAVING CONTINUES AND THE NET, THE NUMBER LEFT CONTINUES ΤΟ DECLINE. THAT'S ONE HELPFUL AREA FOR THE POLICE AND THE CORRECTIONAL SERVICES. ANOTHER ONE IS THE MORE UPDATED CENSUS FORECASTS SHOW DECLINES IN SOME AGE GROUPS IN THE FUTURE AND HENCE LESS NEED FOR INSTANCE IN SOME AREAS FOR FACILITIES FOR CHILDREN AND YOUNG PERSONS. THAT'S PARTLY OFFSET OF COURSE IF YOU GET AN INCREASE IN REQUIREMENT FOR THE AGED. BUT ALL HAS TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT AND PROVIDE SCOPE FOR REDEPLOYMENT.
SOME
TORTER: COULD