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THURSDAY, APRIL 15, 1982
DOMESTIC EXPORT GROWTH MAY NOT REACH FORECAST 7 PER CENT
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THERE IS NOW A HIGHER RISK OF THE ACTUAL GROWTH IN DOME EXPORTS FOR 1982 AS A WHOLE NOT REACHING THE FORECAST OF SEVEN CENT, THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY, THE HON JOHN BREMRIDGE SAID
THIS HIGHER RISK ALSO APPLIES TO THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE EIGHT PER CENT FOR THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, MR BREMRIDGE **LI THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL IN HIS SPEECH CONCLUDING THE DEBATE THE SECOND READING OF THE APPROPRIATION BILL, 1982.
HOWEVER, THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY SAID THAT BECAUSE HE AD CONF IDENCE IN THE ABILITY OF MANUFACTURERS TO OVERCOME PROBLEMS AND BECAUSE THE SERVICES AND FINANCIAL SECTORS WERE DOING WELL, E ID NOT INTEND FORMALLY TO REVISE HIS FORECASTS.
+BUT I AM UNDER NO ILLUSION THAT THE TASK OF OVERCOMING THESE DIFFICULTIES WILL BE EASY. AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY DEVELOPMENTS IN THE UNITED STATES, HE SAID.
MR BREMRIDGE SAID DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES IN THE FIRST TWO MONTHS OF THIS YEAR WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EXPECTED, AND WERE PROBABLY ABOUT TWO PER CENT LESS IN REAL TERMS THAN IN THE CORRESPONDING PERIOD IN 1981.
FURTHERMORE THE EFFECT ON HONG KONG'S EXPORTS OF THE UNITED STATES RECOVERY, WHEN IT HAPPENS, HAS BEEN COMPLICATED BY THE OUTCOME OF THE RECENT NEGOTIATIONS IN RESPECT OF RESTRAINTS ON EXPORTS OF TEXTILES AND CLOTHING TO THE UNITED STATES.
MR BREMRIDGE ESTIMATED THAT THE NEW AGREEMENT COULD REDUCE THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES BY ABOUT ONE PERCENTAGE POINT, AND THE FORECAST GROWTH RATE OF DOMESTIC EXPORTS AS A WHOLE BY LESS THAN HALF A PERCENTAGE POINT.
+THESE REDUCTIONS IN FORECAST GROWTH RATE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE VERY LARGE, AND UNTIL THE MID-YEAR REVIEW I DO NOT INTEND TO CONSIDER REVISION OF MY 1982 FORECASTS, HE SAID.
THE FINANCIAL SECRETARY SAID THE LATEST FIGURES ALSO INDICATED THAT DOMESTIC EXPORTS TO ALL MARKETS IN THE FIRST TWO MONTHS OF THIS YEAR WERE IN REAL TERMS ABOUT TWO PER CENT LESS THAN IN THE SAME PERIOD IN 1981, ON THE SAME COMPARISON RETAINED IMPORTS RAW MATERIALS AND SEMI-MANUFACTURERS WERE ABOUT FIVE PER CENT LESS.
EXPORT PRICES IN FOREIGN CURRENCY TERMS, HOWEVER, HAD HARDLY INCREASED SINCE SEPTEMBER LAST YEAR, HE SAID.
HE ALSO SAID THAT NEGOTIATIONS ON TEXTILES AND CLOTHING WITH THE EEC WERE DUE TO START SOON AND IF THE EEC COULD NOT BE SHIFTED FROM THE IR DECLARED INTENTION, WE WOULD FACE EVEN MORE RESTRICTIVE CUTBACKS IN OUR EXPORTS TO THAT MARKET.
BUT THE OUTCOME WAS UNLIKELY TO AFFECT 1982 EXPORT PROSPECTS, MR BREMRIDGE ADDED.
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