Thursday, November 30, 1972
GOVERNMENT USING NEW POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR FUTURE PLANNING
New population projections made by the Census and Statistics
Department are now being used by the government in planning future towns,
transport systems and social services.
The Commissioner for Census and Statistics, Mr. Kenneth Topley,
said today that the projections are based on data collected from the 1971
population census.
"The method of projection used is known as the component method,
This means that assumptions have to be made about future births, deaths
and migration and recent experience is the best guide for formulating the
assumptions," he said.
"In fact," Mr. Topley said, "it is impossible to predict exactly
the future course of population change and so three projections, high,
medium and low are made based on varying assumptions."
The population of Hong Kong is expected to fall within the range
4.7 to 5.0 million in 1981 and within the range 5.5 to 6.3 million in 1991.
For planning purposes the medium projection was most frequently used.
Mr. Topley said that the details of the projections and their
methodology would be published in a report which was now being prepared.
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