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East. His Majesty's Government had, however, no present intention of doing so, and it seemed to me clear that the necessity for such a step must depend in large measure on the future attitude of Japan.
6. My conclusion from the above statement of the position was that the whole matter was now very much in Japan's hands. If the Japanese Govern- ment desired to discourage the spread to the Far East of a clash of interests between combinations consisting of aggressive" and "non-aggressive" Powers, it would obviously be most unwise for them to strengthen the Anti-Comintern Pact in such a way as to convey an impression that they intended to make common cause with the Axis Powers. Each step in the strengthening of one combination of Powers was in present circumstances inevitably answered by a counter-step, and Japan would only have herself to blame if she now set in motion a process which would extend to the Far East the political difficulties and controversies of Europe. Japan would also only have herself to blame if, by such action, she were to destroy the present sincere hope of the British Government of being able, in the not distant future, to restore really friendly relations between our two countries.
7. Minister for Foreign Affairs listened carefully to my observations, taking note of certain passages, and at the end thanked me for having given him so frank a statement of my views which he characterised as useful and important. He said he would like to think carefully over what I had said before making any comment upon it.
8. As the time at our disposal was brief, it was impossible to cover a wide field. But in the course of subsequent conversation Mr. Arita observed that his reports from Japanese Missions tended to show that the political situation in Europe, which had at one time seemed full of danger, had now eased. I replied that this, if true, was due to the very firm steps taken by the Powers of Europe resolved on armed resistance to further acts of aggres- sion. These steps, supported by the action of President Roosevelt, had apparently for the moment checked German plans; but I thought a dangerous situation would arise if Germany were to attempt to apply to the Danzig question the same brutal methods which she had employed in relation to other border questions. Minister for Foreign Affairs, however, refused to believe that war would be allowed to break out for such a relatively unimportant question as Danzig, which could be easily settled by friendly negotiation. His Excellency also repeated his earlier observations as to the complete untrustworthiness of the U.S.S.R., and the danger that our present policy of bringing that country into the counsels of Europe would only have the effect of facilitating Communist propaganda throughout the world-a result which would be of direct concern to Japan. In reply to my suggestion that the activities of the Comintern appeared to be diminishing both in scope and in quality, and that Soviet Russia was now evolving towards a more normally nationalistic policy, Mr. Arita remarked that this was merely a question of tactics and that the fundamental aim of fomenting world revolution remained unchanged.
9 We also discussed the serious economic situation which the race in armaments and the processes of totalitarian economy were rapidly producing throughout the world, and I once more emphasised my belief that, if only the extremists in Japan could be brought to see that her present policy in China was leading nowhere except to economic ruin, a way could quickly be found by which Japan's economic desiderata could be satisfied by friendly agreement between China, Great Britain and the United States. It was, I observed, a great mistake to believe that Great Britain desired to see any undue weakening of Japan, whether in a military or an economic sense. On the contrary, if Japan would abandon those aggressive methods which were at the bottom, not only of Japan's but of the world's present troubles, Great Britain would be the first to wish to see her strong and influential throughout the world. It was because I was convinced of the truth of these facts that I should so greatly regret to see any further Japanese yielding, under the abnormal, and, I hoped, temporary conditions of to-day, to the strong pressure now being exerted upon her by an almost desperate Germany.
10. Mr. Arita remarked, with a smile, that he knew from earlier con- versations how sincerely I held these views, and he was very glad to learn that
I had now practically decided to abandon my idea of a trip to England during the summer. He knew that friends of Great Britain in this country had been urging me to remain during this critical time, and he himself, while realising that to give up my visit might in some ways be personally embarrassing, never- theless, felt that my decision was a wise one.
11.
I found Mr. Arita obviously suffering from the strain under which he has been labouring during the last few weeks, having had to face simultaneously the political crisis arising out of the question of Japan's future relations with the anti-Comintern Powers, and the somewhat fatiguing and intensive celebrations connected with the arrival in this country of the U.S.S. Astoria, bearing the ashes of the late Japanese Ambassador in Washington. In spite of his obvious fatigue, however, I found him more than usually friendly and more responsive than I had expected to the communication which I had made at the outset of our conversation. All the information reaching me recently confirms the view that he and the Prime Minister, supported by the Court, the navy and all the more moderate elements in the country, have been putting up a very stiff fight indeed against the army's demand for a virtual alliance with the Third Reich.
I have, &c.
R. L. CRAIGIE.
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