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There are also reports that appointment of Vice Admiral
Toyoda to the fleet which is still being kept secret is connected
with intention to intensify blockade measures.
Naval Attaché was informed at Ministry of Marine that Admiral's new duty was "important and very difficult" and present blockade work particularly [grp. undec.] lessened the naval
commitments at Shanghai could not be so described. There are other possible explanations for his appointment viz. a combined
operation on China coast, a desire to relieve first and second
fleet units there by fourth fleet ships or an operation against Yangtze and Barrage. It should however be realised that as long
as Hongkong remains open to munitions traffic, forward party in the navy will press for more drastic steps. Nor is it probable that any argument of the matter of legality or amount of munitions
passing will affect their views.
While realising difficulty of prohibiting export of arms from Hongkong I have thought it best to put the position frankly before you. I do not wish to be an alarmist but I think there is no doubt a movement for strengthening blockade is in progress and that use of Hongkong for passage of munitions is being used as
principal pretext for agitation. The French appear to have been able to stop traffic via their frontier without incurring charge of breach of neutrality and it seems in any case desirable to give due weight to interests of Hongkong which must be seriously affected by institution of a regular blockade of China coast.
If
a prohibition of export of munitions to both sides were otherwise practicable I presume that it would today meet with less opposition at home than on the last occasion it was applied in view of our own rearmament requirements.
Addressed to Foreign Office 628; repeated to Nanking, Hongkong and Commander-in-Chief.