SECRET
SECRET
FM HONG KONG
HKB 01214
Y
RECEIVED IN R.
TO DESKBY 30140OZ FCO
0 2 FEB 1990
TELNO 365
OF 301150Z JANUARY 90
INFO DESKBY 31010OZ PEKING
DFSF FICER
BA
INFO IMMEDIATE UKREP JLG HONG KONG fm
15
064770 MDHIAN 4443
TOP COPY
PERSONAL FOR MCLAREN AUSS FROM GOVERNOR
PEKING PERSONAL FOR AMBASSADOR
UKREP JLG HONG KONG PERSONAL FOR GALSWORTHY
13
MY TELNO 352: CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT
1. IT IS NOT POSSIBLE AT THIS STAGE TO GIVE FIRM ADVICE ON WHAT
WOULD OR WOULD NOT ULTIMATELY BE ACCEPTABLE ON CONSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE TOO MANY VARIABLES. I CANNOT FORESEE EVERY POSSIBILITY WHICH MAY ARISE IN THE COURSE OF OUR FURTHER DISCUSSIONS WITH THE CHINESE. BUT THERE ARE THREE BROAD ISSUES ON
WHICH IT IS POSSIBLE TO OFFER SOME PRELIMINARY IDEAS. THERE ARE THE QUESTION OF TIMING OF AN ANNOUNCEMENT OF OUR OWN PLANS FOR 1991: THE LINE BETWEEN ACCEPTABILITY AND NON-ACCEPTABILITY OF THE NON NUMBER ELEMENTS OF A TOTAL PACKAGE: AND THE QUESTION OF NUMBERS IN
BOTH 1991 AND 1995/97.
-
2.
ON TIMING, IF WE FAIL TO REACH AGREEMENT BY THE END OF THE BLDC PLENARY MEETING (17 FEBRUARY), THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG PRESSURE HERE FOR AN ANNOUNCEMENT OF OUR OWN PLANS FOR 1991 BEFORE THE NPC MEETS. NEVERTHELESS I CONTINUE TO SEE SUBSTANTIAL DISADVANTAGE IN ATTEMPTING AN ANNOUNCEMENT BEFORE WE FINALLY KNOW WHAT IS IN THE BASIC LAW. AN ANNOUNCEMENT BY US BEFORE THE NPC'S DECISION, AND IN THE ABSENCE OF A DEFINITIVE BREAKDOWN, COULD ALWAYS FORCE THE CHINESE TO REMAIN AT 18 EVEN IF THEY MIGHT OTHERWISE HAVE GONE TO 20. THERE IS ALSO THE DANGER OF LAST MINUTE ADDITIONS TO THE BL, E.G. ON ARRANGEMENTS FOR NON-CONTINUITY, WHICH COULD MAKE A BAD SITUATION EVEN WORSE. DESPITE THE LIKELY PRESSURE, I SEE THE BETTER COURSE AS BEING TO CONTINUE PRESSING THE CHINESE FOR IMPROVEMENTS
RIGHT TO THE END AND THEN MAKING OUR OWN MOVES IN FULL
CONSCIOUSNESS OF ALL THE BASIC LAW CONTAINS.
3. ON THE ELEMENTS OF AN OVERALL PACKAGE OTHER THAN NUMBERS, WE WOULD CLEARLY NOT/NOT BE ABLE TO REACH AN AGREEMENT ON CONTINUITY
AND CONVERGENCE IF THE CHINESE DO NOT/NOT MOVE BEYOND THEIR PRESENT
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